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Sproule Price Forecast

Every month, Sproule prepares commodity price forecasts for the oil and gas market. The forecast reflects Sproule’s short and long-term views of key global and regional oil and gas commodity price markers and relies on Sproule’s proprietary models, analysis and insights.

August 31, 2017

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Disclaimer: Prices and forecasts are subject to change at the discretion of Sproule. Read More

Price Forecast Adjustment Notice - August 31, 2017

Sproule has adjusted the 2017 WTI and Brent forecasts to 51.50 and 53.50 USD/bbl respectively due to the expectation for sustained lower prices throughout the remainder of the year. On the gas side, we have revised the 2017 and 2018 Henry Hub price forecast down to $3.10US/MMBtu and $3.25US/MMBtu, respectively. Our anticipation of a prolonged gas price recovery is underpinned by a combination of high existing inventories, a decrease in US gas demand, and strong production from the Marcellus and Utica as well as high associated gas volumes from tight oil plays such as the Permian. Edmonton condensate prices have been strong in 2017 due to increased diluent demand. We have revised the forecast for the Edmonton Condensate differential to WTI to $0.00 US/bbl for the remainder of 2017, and -$1.50 US/bbl for 2018. Our long-term differential of -$3.00 US/bbl to WTI remains unchanged. 

The adjustments for the August 31, 2017 Sproule price forecast are outlined in the table below:  

Year 

WTI (USD/bbl)

Brent (USD/bbl)

Henry Hub (USD/MMBtu)

Edmonton Condensate Differential to WTI  (USD/bbl)

 

July 31, 2017 Forecast

August 31, 2017 Forecast

July 31, 2017 Forecast

August 31, 2017 Forecast

July 31, 2017 Forecast

August 31, 2017 Forecast

July 31, 2017 Forecast

August 31, 2017 Forecast

2017

55.00

51.50

57.00

53.50

3.50

3.10

-2.00

0.00

2018

55.00

55.00

57.00

57.00

3.50

3.25

-3.00

-1.50

2019

65.00

65.00

67.00

67.00

3.50

3.50

-3.00

-3.00

2020

70.00

78.00

72.00

72.00

4.00

4.00

-3.00

-3.00


 

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