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Sproule Price Forecast

Every month, Sproule prepares commodity price forecasts for the oil and gas market. The forecast reflects Sproule’s short and long-term views of key global and regional oil and gas commodity price markers and relies on Sproule’s proprietary models, analysis and insights.

May 31, 2017

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Disclaimer: Prices and forecasts are subject to change at the discretion of Sproule. Read More

Price Forecast Adjustment Notice

Sproule has adjusted its May 31, 2017 price forecast to account for accelerated US crude oil production, which is expected to accelerate growth into 2018. Light tight oil from the Permian is continuing to drive this growth, with production at 0.4 mmbopd above rates this time last year. The expectation of the growth momentum carrying into 2018, in part supported by unwinding of DUCs and greater hedging by LTO producers, may lead to a slower recovery in prices, which is reflected in our revised forecast below for WTI and Brent.

Sproule Adjusted Price Forecast  

YEAR WTI (USD/BBL) BRENT (USD/BBL)
  April 30, 2017 Forecast May 31, 2017 Forecast April 30, 2017 Forecast May 31, 2017 Forecast
2017 $ 55.00 $ 55.00 $ 57.00 $ 57.00
2018 $ 65.00 $ 55.00 $ 67.00 $ 57.00
2019 $ 70.00 $65.00 $ 72.00 $ 67.00
2020 $ 71.40 $ 70.00 $ 73.44 $ 72.00
2021 $ 72.83 $ 73.00 $ 74.91 $ 75.00

2% inflation thereafter

Longer term, Sproule anticipates large global reductions in capital budgets will limit production growth from other non-OPEC sources of supply in the 2018-2020 timeframe. Coupled with our expectation of 1.3 mmbopd per year global demand growth, and increased oil field service costs as activity levels build, our long-term view remains unchanged with prices recovering closer to the $70.00 range by 2020.  
 

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